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U.S. chain store sales up 2.1 percent in October

Luxury market shows first positive reading since May 2008

November 05, 2009

New York--U.S. chain store sales in October increased 2.1 percent on a same-store basis compared with the same period last year, representing the strongest reading since July 2008, when sales increased 3.3 percent, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).

"Further evidence of retail recovery continues to unfold as October comparable-store sales have outperformed the year-to-date reading in every category," Michael P. Niemira, ICSC chief economist and director of research, said in a media release. "The improvement in the stock market has had a significant impact on the affluent shopper's willingness to spend as the luxury market has shown its first positive reading since May 2008."

At J.C. Penney Co. Inc., same-store sales decreased 4.5 percent for the four weeks ended Oct. 31, compared with a 13 percent decrease for the four weeks ended Nov. 1, 2008.

This is slightly better than the company's guidance for the period, which estimated same-store sales to decrease 5 percent to 8 percent.

Total sales in October decreased 3.5 percent.

Women's apparel and shoes were the top-performing merchandise divisions in October, while fine jewelry continued to experience weaker sales.

Geographically, the best-performing region was the Southwest, while the Southeast experienced the weakest results.

For the 13 weeks ended Oct. 31, same-store sales dropped 4.6 percent, compared with a 10.1 percent decrease for the same period last year, and total sales decreased 3.2 percent.

For the year to date, J.C. Penney's same-store sales are down 7.2 percent, and total sales are down 5.7 percent.

Over at Macy's, same-store sales were down 0.8 percent for the four weeks ended Oct. 31, and total sales dropped 1.3 percent to $1.692 billion, compared with $1.714 billion for the four weeks ended Nov. 1, 2008.

For the third quarter, same-store sales decreased 3.6 percent, and total sales dropped 3.9 percent to $5.276 billion, compared with $5.493 billion for the 13-week period last year.

For the year to date, Macy's same-store sales are down 7.5 percent, and total sales are down 7.8 percent to $15.639 billion, compared with $16.958 billion for the first 39 weeks of 2008.

Online sales (Macys.com and Bloomingdales.com combined) were up 34.6 percent in October, 21.1 percent in the third quarter and 15.6 percent for the year to date. Online sales positively affected the company's same-store sales by 0.6 percentage points in the third quarter and by 0.5 percentage points in the year to date. (Online sales are included in the same-store sales calculation for Macy's.)

Meanwhile, same-store sales at Neiman Marcus were down 6 percent to $269 million for the four weeks ended Oct. 31, compared with $286 million for the four weeks ended Nov. 1, 2008. Total sales dropped 4.2 percent to $274 million year-over-year.

In the four-week October period, comparable revenues in the Specialty Retail Stores segment, which includes Neiman Marcus Stores and Bergdorf Goodman, decreased 6.2 percent.

The merchandise categories in the Specialty Retail Stores segment that performed the strongest included women's fine apparel and shoes and men's clothing.

Comparable revenues at Neiman Marcus Direct in the four-week October period decreased 4.8 percent.

Performance was strongest in the women's fine apparel, jewelry and beauty categories.

For the 13 weeks ended Oct. 31 (the first fiscal quarter), same-store sales decreased 13.7 percent to $850 million, compared with $985 million for the 13 weeks ended Nov. 1, 2008. Total sales dropped 11.9 percent to $869 million.

At Saks Inc., same-store sales increased 0.7 percent for the four weeks ended Oct. 31, and owned sales increased 1.8 percent to $219.8 million, compared with $216 million for the four weeks ended Nov. 1, 2008.

The Saks Fifth Avenue stores experienced continued weakness during the month, although several merchandise categories showed relative strength, including women's designer sportswear and "gold range" apparel, outerwear, jewelry and soft accessories. Saks Direct performed very well during the month, and Saks OFF 5TH also showed relative strength in October.

For the third quarter ended Oct. 31, owned sales totaled $622.7 million, compared with $682 million for the third quarter ended Nov. 1, 2008, an 8.7 percent decrease. Comparable-store sales decreased 10.1 percent for the quarter.

On a year-to-date basis, for the nine months ended Oct. 31, owned sales totaled $1,794.3 million, compared with $2,175.3 million for the nine months ended Nov. 1, 2008, a 17.5 percent decrease. Comparable-store sales decreased 18.5 percent for the period.

Looking ahead, the ICSC expects U.S. chain same-store sales for November will increase 5 percent to 8 percent compared with November 2008.

In addition, ICSC Research projects U.S. holiday sales for the November-December 2009 period will increase by approximately 1 percent based on either GAFO store sales or the ICSC's tally of major chain store sales. Shopping center sales are expected to increase by 1.8 percent this holiday season.
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