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Study: Holiday shopping season not looking merry

Deloitte forecasts flat 2009 holiday sales, though better than last year's decline

September 22, 2009

Holiday shopping lists might not be very long this year. According to a forecast released by Deloitte on Monday, retailers will need to prepare for flat holiday sales this year as consumers continue to save and try to cut costs.

Deloitte's Retail Group expects a zero percent change in 2009 holiday sales compared with last year, with a total of $810 billion (retail sales during the 2008-2009 holiday season totaled $809 billion). This excludes motor vehicles and gasoline.

While a flat holiday season is not great news for retailers, it would be an improvement over last year's decrease in sales of 2.4 percent. According to Deloitte, the first such decline seen on U.S. Commerce Department data dates back to 1967.

"Although there are signs that suggest the economy is nearing the end of its darkest days, many consumers remain burdened by restricted credit availability, high unemployment and foreclosures," said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist with Deloitte Research, in a statement. "Americans continue to save at historically high rates while also paying down debt, and these factors combined suggest another chilly holiday season for retailers."

However, Steidtmann believes the numbers might improve if other economic indicators, such as home prices and stocks prices, move up, with gas prices remaining stable.

These numbers are consistent with what retailers have been preparing for, adjusting inventory and reporting a cautious approach in their hiring for the holiday season.

Despite the lukewarm sales forecast, many opportunities remain for targeting digital shoppers through a variety of mediums, according to the study.

"Retailers that can harness the power of technology likely have a better chance of engaging those consumers who are willing to spend," said Stacy Janiak, vice chairman and U.S. retail leader for Deloitte LLP, in a statement. "The proliferation of mobile applications and social networks may yield new opportunities to pursue targeted advertising, build brand loyalty and measure campaign effectiveness."
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