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NRF: Might pent-up demand help Black Friday?

November 25, 2008

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Washington--The number of Americans planning to hit the stores might be down this weekend, but low gas prices and perhaps the most heavily promotional Black Friday in history could bring a welcome surprise for retailers, says the National Retail Federation (NRF).

In a new, preliminary Black Friday shopping survey conducted by Big Research for the NRF, 49 million respondents said they will definitely hit the stores this weekend, while another 79 million said they are waiting to see the weekend deals before making any decisions. The 128 million who will or might shop this weekend is down from the 135 million consumers who said they would or might shop over Black Friday weekend last year.

But the NRF points out that for the first time since March 2005, the average price of self-serve, unleaded gasoline is $1.91 per gallon, leaving shoppers with a little extra padding in their wallets.

While consumers are still expected to pull back in their holiday purchases, pent-up demand from consumers who have been waiting all year long for great deals could also bode well for some retailers, the NRF says.

"Retailers realize that low prices will get consumers into stores this holiday season, and this could be the most heavily promotional Black Friday in history," NRF President and Chief Executive Officer Tracy Mullin said in a media release. "Shoppers who held off buying a DVD player or winter coat over the last few months will find that prices might literally be too good to pass up."

The NRF will release the results of its Black Friday weekend retail survey at NRF.com/Holidays by 4 p.m. EST on Sunday, Nov. 30. It will include what time people started shopping on Black Friday, where they shopped, how much they spent and what they bought.

The NRF will also be releasing findings from a new survey on the number of people expected to shop on Cyber Monday.
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